6 June 2017: General Election Spread Betting Prices:
Below – political markets as of 2.15pm.
1 June 2017: Conservatives Trying Hard to Lose
- trending_downConservatives – a badly run and uninspiring election campaign is hurting the Tories. They’ve now dropped 35 seats to the current price of 363 – 367 seats
- trending_upLabour – up 50 seats from their low 5 May low (after poor local elections). Now trading at 199 – 203 seats
- trending_downLib Dems – still a poor spread of 12 – 14 seats and only 5 more seats than they currently have in parliament
- errorUKIP – and quite rightly… still no one cares about UKIP. The prediction is stuck at 0.01 – 0.3 = 0 seats
1 June 2017: Nasty General Election Chart:
It’s not looking pretty for Theresa May’s “Nasty Party”, she’s heading towards a hung parliament.
Below – charts showing the spread betting seats markets for the Conservative and Labour parties.
31 May 2017: Worst Tory Election Campaign Ever?
Some colourful insight from Rod Liddle at The Spectator.
“Theresa May has the personal warmth, wit, oratorical ability and attractiveness of an Indesit fridge-freezer which has been faultily connected by a man called Trevor for five quid, cash in hand, and which is now full of decomposing Findus Crispy Pancakes.
“There is no vision, there is no chutzpah.
“Just the bland repetition of meaningless catchphrases.
“Jezza is a far better campaigner.
“OK, agreed, the Labour front bench has the collective IQ of a fairly small bowl of krill.
“But the Conservative front bench is lightweight too.”
Read full article at the spectator.co.uk.
19 May 2017: Lib Dems Hammered (and not in a good way)
- star_halfConservatives – a little off the highs but in a commanding position at 392.5 – 396.5 seats
- trending_upLabour – making gains and up 20 seats from their low. Now trading at 170 – 174 seats
- trending_downLib Dems – in free fall, the market has fallen from 29 – 31 seats to 13 – 15 seats
- errorUKIP – no one cares. The spread is 0.01 – 0.3 = 0 seats
12 May 2017: Election Price Update
Note – below we mostly use the Financial Spreads prices (but IG, CoreSpreads etc. also have markets).
If you are thinking of trading then shop around, the spread widths on Financial Spreads seem reasonable but you might find better prices elsewhere.
Political betting markets normally are pretty inefficient (and sometimes have wide spreads).
Election Spreads:
11 May 2017: Warning – Check the Election Market Detail
A warning for everyone wanting to buy IG’s Conservative Majority market (see screenshot above).
This is not a ‘seats’ based market.
The Conservative Majority market will either settle at 0 (no Conservative majority) or 100 (Conservative majority).
If you buy the market then your max upside is 3x your stake and the max downside is a cheeky 97x your stake.
5 May 2017: Election Price Update
5 May 2017: Conservative Party Could Beat Margaret Thatcher’s 1983 Landslide Win
The results of last week’s local elections have given the Tories another boost.
Before the local elections, FinancialSpreads’s “Conservative seats” market was 388.5 – 392.5. As the results came out, the market moved about 10 seats higher to 398 – 402 seats.
The Labour party seats market dived, it dropped 10 seats from 160 – 164 to 150 – 154.
How to Calculate the Conservative Majority
1) Find the mid-price of the sell-price and the buy-price.
| Market | Sell-Price | Buy-Price | Mid-Price |
| Conservative Seats | 398 | 402 | 400 |
| Labour Seats | 150 | 154 | 152 |
| Green Seats | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.05 |
| Lib Dem Seats | 23.5 | 25.5 | 24.5 |
| Other Seats | 21.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 |
| SNP Seats | 46 | 48.5 | 47.25 |
| UKIP Seats | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Total Opposition Seats | 241.9 | 253.3 | 247.6 |
| Conservative Majority | 156.1 | 148.7 | 152.4 |
Above, FinancialSpreads.com prices as of 12:00pm, 5 May 2017.
2) The above mid-prices give an estimate of the Tories getting 400 seats and “Total Opposition” being 247.6 seats.
3) There are 650 seats in the UK Parliament so let’s say we round up a few missing seats from the average (mid-price) to non-Conservative parties, that gives the opposition 250 seats
4) It’s pretty simple maths from here. 400 Conservative seats – 250 opposition seats = a Conservative majority of 150 seats.
Maggie had a 144 seat majority in 1983.
Having said that, Theresa May is still some way off Tony Blair’s 1997 and 2001 majorities of 179 and 167 seats respectively.
Why Such a Big Lead for the Tories?
I guess that’s what happens when:
- arrow_forwardLabour choose an unelectable leader and take a big step to the left
- arrow_forwardUKIP become redundant and move to the right
- arrow_forwardThe Liberal Democrats are still rebuilding
The above leaves a lot of room for the Conservatives even if Theresa May’s party is edging further to the right.
Political Betting Markets May Be a Little Frothy!
Note that many people with spread betting accounts are male, 35-65 and live in the south-east. Their own personal bias could easily be pushing these markets a little higher than they should be.
Of course… if you think the prices are codswallop you could sell / trade accordingly! (but be very careful if you trade. Politics or not, spread betting is high risk.
For something with a fixed downside you could try a site like betfair.
Want More on Politics Betting?
Take a look at Mike Smithson’s PoliticalBetting.com, it’s an excellent and unbiased site with pretty much daily coverage and plenty of poll updates.
Or just join Smithson’s +40,000 follows on Twitter.